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You can use Newton's Law of Cooling to model both the heating and cooling of your valve. You'd use the data you already collected to establish the model, then use the model to see how long it takes the valve to approach equilibrium in the furnace. You can use the same model to estimate the temperature behavior between the time you removed the part from the furnace and when the Arduino was able to get a fix on the thermocouple. I will post details on how to do this in a little while.